Category Archives: Politics

The American Dream

My Generation

Before I go on, let me be the first to point out the hypocrisy: I am currently in debt for a college education and a car, I’m married and expecting my first child in September, and plan to buy a house in the next two to five years. While my adherence to Ferguson’s path to the American Dream is unsettling, I am, to some degree, an outlier of our generation.

To generalize our generation, Millennials are getting married and buying houses later in life than previous generations. Those of us with college degrees are suffering from stagnant wages and insane student debt to income ratios, while those of us without college degrees are suffering from a widening income gap, high unemployment, and few opportunities. The Great Recession hit the generations before us hard, forcing some to come out of retirement and others to postpone it, leaving fewer employment and advancement opportunities for Millennials.

Did the American Dream Change?

Some columnists will argue that Millennials don’t want the American Dream, but I whole-heartedly disagree. Millennials still want a house and a family, we just can’t afford them. The problem isn’t that Millennials are lazy or entitled; a big part of the problem is that while student debt has quadrupled, wages have stagnated. Collecting mountains of debt isn’t working. We need to change the rules of the game to make the American Dream achievable again, not change the American Dream.

I previously wrote two related posts: Educational Achievement in America, and Intergenerational Economic Mobility (specifically how race, parental income, and gender effect economic mobility).

Deciding Factors

Hope for Moderate Republicans

Trump and Cruz currently lead the polls in Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada (three of the four first states to vote). Trump also leads Cruz nationally by double digits in every recent poll. It’s appears to be a battle between egomaniacs for the Republican nomination, but I’m here to give you a smidgen of hope: Marco Rubio can still win the nomination.

Let’s be honest: of all of the other candidates, Marco Rubio has the best shot of beating Trump and Cruz to the top spot. He’s moderate, well spoken, and has basically been gearing up for this since his State of the Union response in 2013. Rubio is currently sitting third in Iowa, South Carolina, and national polls.

Best Case Scenario: Rubio takes third in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Three third place finishes gets him more media attention and pulls votes away from Bush, Christie, and Kasich. A good showing on Super Tuesday (March 1) cements him as the establishment candidate. Trump consolidates the anti-establishment votes, and it’s a two-way race for the Republican nomination.

Worst Case Scenario: Rubio takes third in Iowa, fifth behind Kasich and Bush in New Hampshire, and comes fourth in South Carolina behind Jeb bush. Christie and Kasich votes start getting split between Bush and Rubio, but Rubio can’t get enough momentum to pull ahead come Super Tuesday. A prolonged battle ensues between Bush and Rubio, while Trump picks up more votes and eventually wins the nomination.

Nightmare Scenario: Cruz wins. Honestly, I’d rather have Trump.

The Bernie Dream Lives On

It’s already a two-way race in the Democratic party between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, and it’s much closer than political pundits ever predicted. Clinton has a 3 pt lead over Sanders in Iowa. Bernie leads by 16 in New Hampshire, and Clinton is almost 30 up in South Carolina.

Bernie has a 14 point gap to close in national polls, but the dream is still alive. An upset in Iowa, a big win in New Hampshire, and a big swing in South Carolina could make up the gap for Sanders. That’s an optimistic scenario, but I’m a very optimistic person.

On The Issues

I want to take a second to talk about the issues as I see them.

1. Health Care

I’m hitting a new milestone this year, 26 years old, and with that comes a significant change: I can no longer leech off of my parents health insurance. What are my options now? I could get a job that provides health insurance, or I could get insurance on the “new” health care market (aka “Obamacare”).

Let’s ignore the “get a job” option for now. I’ve been actively pursuing opportunities, and have yet to find a new position. Getting a new job isn’t exactly instantaneous anyways. So, let’s check out HealthCare.gov. After filling out the basic information, it looks like I’m pretty fucked. The monthlys premium start at $305 per month with a $13,700 deductible, and go up to $942 per month with a $0 deductible. Let’s look at an “average” plan. The average deductible for an individual in 2015 was around $1,300 (according to this study). The closest I could find was a $1,500 deductible, and the lowest monthly premium was $633. Estimated total yearly cost: $10,607.

Abandoning my personal plight for affordable health care, let’s talk more generally. Health care costs continue to rise and workers are paying more and more of those rising costs. Not only are workers paying more, health care costs are actually rising faster than wages are. So workers aren’t just paying more, they’re paying a larger percentage of their salary to cover the cost of staying healthy. I’m also going to ignore that, instead of promoting preventative care, our system is reactionary (i.e you get sick, you go to the doctor and take pills to get better).

Here’s the even bigger picture: good health is a a basic necessity. If you’re ill all the time, how are you supposed to work? The goal, as I see it, is to create a system where people have an equal opportunity to succeed. To ensure that goal, I believe we need a universal health care system, aka a single payer system. The promise of the Affordable Care Act (ACA or “Obamacare”) was to provide affordable health insurance for everyone. But it was an incredibly long, fault ridden attempt. It may have been the best compromise President Obama could get passed through Congress, but it’s a poor substitute for a single payer system.

Hillary Clinton is campaigning on Obama’s legacy, saying we need to preserve and strengthen the ACA. The only candidate that supports a single payer system is, you guessed it, Bernie Sanders.

2. Foreign Policy

I was sitting in my sixth grade math class when Mrs. Kissinger turned on the tiny television suspended in the corner of the classroom. Where were you on September 11th, 2001?

The attacks on 9/11 and the U.S. response to them have definitely influenced my views on what intelligent foreign policy looks like. It’s easy to look back on all the mistakes the U.S. has made when it comes to international relations (Vietnam, the end of the Persian Gulf War, and the Iraq War are just the tip of the iceberg). What I want is a President who isn’t going to let fear or hatred dictate their decisions, but instead will analyze what the best decision for the long term is.

I could go on at length about foreign policy. It’s one of my favorite topics to discuss; I may even do a full length post about foreign policy in the future. For now, I’ll just say this: Bernie Sanders voted against the Iraq War Resolution and against the PATRIOT Act. Hillary Clinton cast “Yea” votes for both.

3. Education

We went to school with the promise that “getting a college education will get you a good job” and “it’ll be easy to pay off your debts.” Then we graduated into one of the worst economies with a financially crippling amount of debt and high interest rates. When 85% of your loan payments are going towards interest, the system is broken.

I previously said that, “the goal, as I see it, is to create a system where people have an equal opportunity to succeed.” Education is another essential piece of the puzzle. Now, I can’t say that I 100% support Bernie’s initiative to make public university education free. I think there are a lot of other areas in education which need support, especially in urban and economically depressed areas. Nonetheless, I believe providing as much education to as many people as possible is a good idea. Education past a high school diploma is necessary in today’s job market, and when the barrier to bettering yourself through education is money, not intelligence, we need to fix the system.

Both Democratic candidates have plans to fix the rising costs of college education, but Bernie’s is the more idealistic one.

I think former Secretary of Labor under President Clinton, Robert Reich, said it best: “Hillary is best qualified for the system we have. Bernie is best qualified for the system we should have.”

Meet the Candidates – Part II

Democratic Candidates

Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton comes with a lot of baggage (e.g. Benghazi, her emails, Bill), but she’s been the assumed Democratic candidate since her campaign began. Although her lead has been slashed to 12.7% (according to the latest polls), political experts expect her to come out on top in the end.

Opinion

In an election season defined by the success of outsider candidates, Hillary represents the establishment. First Lady of Arkansas (and concurrently partner at Rose Law Firm), First Lady of the United States, Senator from New York, and Secretary of State; it’s an impressive resume full of achievements. She has the experience and political capital to get things done in office.

As an establishment candidate with many years of experience, she also comes with baggage. Specifically:

Benghazi
- While Secretary of State, the State Department denied requests from the diplomatic compound in Benghazi for additional security. The compound was later attacked, and Ambassador Stevens became the first U.S. Ambassador to be killed in the line of duty since 1979.
- Secretary Clinton took responsibility for the security lapses. In her testimony to Congress, she stated that she did not have direct oversight of the decisions to deny additional security.
- Opinion: Someone made a decision in a complicated situation, and it ended up going horribly wrong. Mistakes happen, and we learn from them. If it wasn’t Hillary, I don’t think this would have blown up like it did.
The Emails
- Hillary used her personal email address and a privately maintained server instead of government maintained servers when conducting her business as Secretary of State.
- Opinion: Stupid, yes. Illegal, no. Clinton has admitted it was a mistake to do so, but her handling of the whole thing was shady at best. She kept denying things only to have to come out and apologize once they were proven later. She would have been better off if she had just come clean at the outset of the “scandal”.
Political Ties
- This campaign season has been all about the rise of the anti-establishment, and, in the current political climate, Hillary’s experience and connections to Wall Street / “Special Interests” is hurting her.

The Verdict: As a socially liberal voter, if Hillary gets the Democratic Nomination I will throw my support behind her, but me? I’m all about the Bern.

Bernie Sanders

The self-described socialist Senator from Vermont has been pretty consistent throughout his career. He’s championed campaign finance reform, climate change, and the fight against income/wealth inequality. He’s the experienced anti-establishment candidate, and he’s gaining momentum.

Opinion

In contrast to the Republican “carpet bomb the Middle East” approach, Sanders knows how to think critically. He voted against invading Iraq, he voted for strikes in Afghanistan, and emphasizes a “diplomacy first” policy. Personally, I want a Commander in Chief who’s first response to a crisis isn’t going to be “bomb the Middle East”.

Where Sanders really shines is domestic policy. His plan to invest $1 trillion in infrastructure over five years is reminiscent of the New Deal and the Great Society programs under FDR and LBJ. He wants to reform campaign finance laws, get rid of PACs, and overturn Citizens United.

He’s a populist. He’s a socialist. He’s my favorite candidate.

The next big question is: can he accomplish any of it? With our current congress? Doubtful. Will that stop me from showing my support for his policies and voting for him and candidates who support similar policies? No.

He’s plain spoken and has a disheveled, grandfatherly appearance, but he’s sincere and consistent when it comes to policy.

Who is your favorite candidate? What issues are most important to you? Share your thoughts below!

Meet the Candidates – Part I

1 Reply

With the Iowa Caucuses only twenty-three days away, let’s meet the candidates. I’ll be using an average of polls provided by RealClearPolitics to identify the top three polling Republicans and the three Democratic candidates. Let’s begin:

Republican Candidates

Donald Trump

Political commentators have been predicting the fall of Trump since early last year, and their predictions renew every time he says something outlandish, racist, or ignorant. So far, they’ve been wrong. With 34% of the vote in national polls, The Donald is the front-runner for the GOP nomination.

Love him or hate him, you have to admit that Trump is an expert at marketing his brand. He’s said some abhorrent things throughout the campaign, but each time only gains him more media attention and free publicity. Trump’s fight against political correctness and his “tell it like you see it” mentality has gained him a large following, and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down any time soon.

Opinion

With ideas like shutting down Muslim immigration to the U.S. and building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, I think it’s fair to describe Donald Trump as a xenophobe. The ignorance and fear candidates like Trump are preying upon is disheartening to me. Politicians in the UK and Germany have called for Trump to be banned from entering their countries, and I can’t say I blame them. Trump is a walking world war propaganda poster.

Ted Cruz

The Senator from Texas is currently just over 13% behind Donald Trump and second place in the polls. He stunned political commentators when he won his Senate seat in 2012 (the Washington Post called it the “biggest upset of 2012“), and since then has gained a reputation for alienating his Senate colleagues in both parties.

Like Trump, Cruz has campaigned on the idea that he is a Washington outsider. He’s said he’s taken on the “Washington cartel“, and that it makes him “uniquely qualified for the Presidency”.

Opinion

First, what I like: I like that Cruz is fighting against the establishment. I like that he doesn’t support subsidies for ethanol and sugar. I like that he has convictions, which is more than I can say for some of the other Presidential candidates.

What I dislike: Cruz believes that the Republican party, specifically the GOP majority Senate, has not been conservative enough. It’s one thing to fight the establishment, to fight pork, and to fight cronyism, it’s as whole other thing for you to be disliked by almost every one of your peers. And for someone fighting against establishment and cronyism, it is amazing that he is willing to pledge his undying support for Israel. I’d rather vote for Trump.

Marco Rubio

Sitting in third place, with 11.7% of the vote, Marco Rubio has been fairly steady throughout the campaign. He’s outlasted Carson, Bush, and Fiorina, and he looks to be the last viable “establishment” candidate for the Republican party.

Opinion

Of the three candidates here, I like Marco Rubio the most. I think Rubio has the best chance of any of the Republican candidates of winning the general election, and I think many of his policies are well reasoned and sound (e.g. immigration). That said, I have some issues.

Rubio’s stances on Iran, Cuba, and Israel directly conflict with my foreign policy worldview. I believe that engaging with Cuba and Iran is the best way towards peace. Over 50 years of sanctions haven’t helped the Cuban people, and a continuation of this policy would be be bullheaded. If our goal is to bring freedom and peace to the Middle East and Cuba, our tactics of attacking and alienating countries has done nothing but bring further harm to the people of those countries and to Americans.

Meet the Candidates – Part II

Next week, I’ll introduce the Democratic candidates for President. Share your thoughts with me below or on Twitter!